https://datatweets.com/courses/statistics/conditional-probability-and-bayes/Recent content in Conditional Probability & Bayes on DATATWEETSHugoenCopyright (c) 2025 DatatweetsSat, 27 Jun 2026 09:00:00 +0200https://datatweets.com/courses/statistics/conditional-probability-and-bayes/lesson-1-conditional-probability-fundamentals/Fri, 14 Nov 2025 09:00:00 +0200https://datatweets.com/courses/statistics/conditional-probability-and-bayes/lesson-1-conditional-probability-fundamentals/Meet conditional probability — the probability of A given B — and see how conditioning on one fact changes a probability, why P(A|B) is not P(B|A), and how it connects to independence.https://datatweets.com/courses/statistics/conditional-probability-and-bayes/lesson-2-conditional-probability-intermediate/Fri, 14 Nov 2025 09:00:00 +0200https://datatweets.com/courses/statistics/conditional-probability-and-bayes/lesson-2-conditional-probability-intermediate/Use the general multiplication rule to walk a probability tree, revisit independence through conditional probability, and learn the law of total probability — the denominator Bayes’ theorem will need next.https://datatweets.com/courses/statistics/conditional-probability-and-bayes/lesson-3-bayes-theorem/Fri, 14 Nov 2025 09:00:00 +0200https://datatweets.com/courses/statistics/conditional-probability-and-bayes/lesson-3-bayes-theorem/Turn P(B|A) into P(A|B) with Bayes’ theorem. Meet the prior, likelihood, evidence, and posterior, work the classic 16.7% medical-test result, and see why base rates change everything.https://datatweets.com/courses/statistics/conditional-probability-and-bayes/lesson-4-the-naive-bayes-algorithm/Fri, 14 Nov 2025 09:00:00 +0200https://datatweets.com/courses/statistics/conditional-probability-and-bayes/lesson-4-the-naive-bayes-algorithm/Build the Naive Bayes algorithm step by step: compare P(clickbait | words) with P(genuine | words), handle zero-frequency words with add-1 smoothing, use log-probabilities, and reach ~91% accuracy on real headlines.https://datatweets.com/courses/statistics/conditional-probability-and-bayes/lesson-5-guided-project-clickbait-classifier/Fri, 14 Nov 2025 09:00:00 +0200https://datatweets.com/courses/statistics/conditional-probability-and-bayes/lesson-5-guided-project-clickbait-classifier/The module capstone: tokenize 6,000 real headlines, train a from-scratch Naive Bayes classifier with priors and smoothed word likelihoods, then measure a real ~91% test accuracy and read its confusion matrix and signal words.